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This is interesting stuff on Zim, but I think you're over-concerned about the long term. To employ a bit of Marxist analysis, as the mode of production in China shifts from socialism-feudalism to capitalism (which is only happening very slowly outside the cities), there will be huge pressures on the political system. Basically it's impossible to run a capitalist economy in a socialist polity: the dispersed information required for free markets to operate naturally produces a more enlightened and aspirant masses - hence a desire for political involvement. Now, unless an educated capitalist class submits willingly to dictatorship (possible, though I'd say unlikely in the absence of huge external pressures), I'd judge it's China's closer neighbours who need to be more worried. The place is likely to either blow up internally or transition calmly. Not sure which. Most worried of all should be Taiwan, of course. Invasion of the 'renegade province' would be very popular at home. It would be an easy way for totalitarian elites to grab some popularity if they felt their grip slipping.

Invading Taiwan would be economic suicide as the Taiwanese account for the vast majority of foreign investment in the country. Although they would gain a 'renegade province', but they would lose everything else in the process.

Jarndyce, I hear this argument quite often - that the Chinese will eventually have to become more "like us" if they want to be successful capitalists. I think this reflects Western assumptions about economic success. Western countries all have a shared history and cultural assumptions. Our version of capitalism has developed from these assumptions. The Chinese view of the world is different. For example, property rights, the cornerstone of western capitalism, mean something different in China than in the West.

It may be that an educated oligarchy that does well from Chinese capitalism might want to keep its power to itself, rather than risk the instability of democracy. After all, the educated capitalist class in 1930s Germany were quite happy to submit to dictatorship if it promised stability, prosperity and an empire to exploit. The capitalists in Tsarist Russia were mostly happy too until the war messed things up.

We can't assume that China will follow the liberal-capitalist path to economic and political power and I don't buy the argument that capitalism and dictatorship are incompatible.


I see better what you mean about China in Zimbabwe. I too am worries that rather than mutate into a democratic capitalist country, China shows more signs of national socialism.

An examination of extreme nationalist and racist attitudes among China's educated elite. This was written by an Anglo-American pro-free market writer who is married to a Chinese woman. http://www.vdare.com/derbyshire/sino-fascism.htm

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