Go West, Young Man!

From time to time, when I was at university, my friends and I would find ourselves at a party where there was a significant gender imbalance, usually too many men and not enough women.  This was to be expected, up to a point, as the university had many more male students than female ones.  Occasionally, though, some fool would really mess up, either because he didn't know many women or because he had just issued a general invitation at the local pubs.  We would end up in a room full of blokes drinking heavily.  Whatever the reason for the lack of women, the result was almost always the same.  At some point in the evening there would be a huge scrap.  I remember one such party in East Yorkshire where there were thirty to forty men and about four women, all of whom, I seem to remember, were with their boyfriends.  As usual, the heavy drinking started and after a couple of hours the inevitable brawling began.  In the end the fighting spilled out into the street and many of us found ourselves giving statements to the police at five o'clock in the morning.  It seems that, without the civilising influence of women, or at least the diversion of trying to get laid, young men soon resort to punching each others lights out.

If that's what happens when you get thirty young single men together, what happens when you get thirty million of them?  This will be China's predicament by 2020.  As a result of the one-child policy and the cultural preference for male children, China will have a huge gender imbalance, which, as at those teenage parties, is bound to spell trouble.  The Chinese government is paranoid about social instability.  It values the cohesion of the country above all else.  Thirty million unruly single young men, unencumbered by wives or families, could destabilise the country.  The government may find itself dealing with a wave of riots and crime.

The alternative, of course, is not to leave the young men to fight each other and their fellow countrymen but to give them someone else to fight.  If you believe the pessimists, 2020 is around the time that oil production will peak and thereafter, the world's supply will start to decrease while demand continues to rise.  Like all developed economies, China will need to secure its future energy supply.  Sending the young men to beat up some foreigners and steal their oil and gas would get rid of two problems at once. And who better to send off to war than young men without wives or families.

So where might this army of lads, spoiling for a fight, be sent?  Africa has plenty of oil but China may already be running the continent through its proxy rulers by 2020, so there would be little point in invading.  Perhaps they wouldn't need go quite so far.  A country with lots of oil and gas, whose population is in free-fall and on whose territory China already has a historical claim, might be a more tempting proposition.

An outright war between Russia and China is improbable but, unlike the Americans, who want everything by yesterday, the Chinese play a long game.  Four years ago, a census revealed that the Chinese were Russia's fastest growing ethnic group. Their numbers had shot up from 5,000 in the late 1980s to 3.26 million in 2003.  As a dry sponge soaks up water, depopulated Siberia is drawing in Chinese migrants from across its porous border.  For young men with few prospects, carving out their fortune in the empty lands of Siberia might look like an attractive alternative to kicking around in some grim provincial Chinese town.  In 100 years time, Chinese films may tell the story of how brave and ambitious young men travelled west across the vast plains,  fought off the natives and made their fortunes in a new land.  They might even call them "westerns".

Update: Shuggy has posted on this too. With Glaswegian bluntness, he says, "There are few things on this earth more dangerous than a young man who cannae get his hole."

Comments

[Wolfie]

You raise an interesting point with this post Steve.

I've been concerned about the demographic shift in China as the population has grown for some years now, and don't forget India (figures are not as accurate). However I didn't expect Russia to start sinking so fast, a grave matter of concern for Europe as we are becoming increasingly reliant on Russian oil reserves. It pains me that the press and indeed some governments position Russia as our enemy at this juncture in history when we should be beholden to them as great friends. A strong Russia is good for us too.

When the scenario you suggest unwinds I suspect it will be [western] Europeans once more standing shoulder-to-shoulder with his Russian comrade against a tyrannical invader.

Those who do not not learn from history are doomed...

[james higham]

The answer is to go to Russia and the imbalance is the other way. They still manage to beat each other up though.

[alison]

You and Wolfie have given a lot of food for thought. Thanks

[Will_B]

James, that's because they are Russian.

Living under repressive regime + too much vodka = Angry drunk dude with fists...

[chachi]

"As usual, the heavy drinking started and after a couple of hours the inevitable brawling started. In the end the fighting spilled out into the street and many of us found ourselves giving statements to the police at five o'clock in the morning. It seems that, without the civilising influence of women, or at least the diversion of trying to get laid, young men soon resort to punching each others lights out."

"As usual"......so this is what you call civilised society....primative behaviour if you ask me, wouldn't be out of place during the stone age.
An accurate description of 99% of all BNP supporters...yes......civilised?

[Steve]

Chachi - are you trying to tell me that you never get punch ups in Muslim societies?

What about that incident last year when a mob went on the rampage in Cairo. There was no political motive,it was just just a load of young men behaving badly. And they didn't even have the excuse of being drunk.

Get off your high horse - you know as well as I do that young men the world over fight when they have nothing better to do.

[chachi]

steve, you said 'as usual' as if it was the common thing to do, which is very common in western societies. And no, it's not common at all in islamic societies, see, most muslims always have better things to do than fight over nothing, thats why i called it primative behaviour, it was based on what you described as being 'usual', as for what happened in cairo, i wasn't there so i don't know why it happened & i'm guessing neither were you.

[alison]

what do you call a good day out for islam then chachi, since booze and birds are off limit, blowing yourself up? is that where we got the expression 'having a blast', can we put that one down to Islams magnificent past youre so proud of? Where are you from? As Steve says get off your high horse and go check out the girls views from Cairo that blogged about it.